Explore this Work Programme:
Overview
We publish gas supply and demand studies to better understand the role of gas in the future and to provide stakeholders with useful information to make informed decisions.
Why these studies are important
Regular Supply and Demand studies provide insights for industry and policymakers about the potential outcomes from decisions about possible pathways for the sector.
Why we use scenarios
Scenarios analysis seeks to model likely outcomes in a given set of circumstances, allowing us to explore the potential impacts of different demand-side and supply-side drivers. This helps us to make decisions between potential choices.
Scenario analysis differs from forecasting because it is not a prediction of what is likely to happen in the future.
Most recent study
The most recent study report is for the Gas Supply and Demand Study 2024.
Previous studies
Gas Supply and Demand studies from 2012 to 2024 can be found under Previous studies.
Most recent study
About the Gas Supply and Demand study - 2024
The 2024 Gas Supply and Demand study, undertaken by EY, analysed four potential scenarios to represent a range of possible futures:
- A ‘low intervention’ future, where market settings remain close to existing conditions,
- A ‘Methanex leaves early’ scenario, in which the dominant gas user, Methanex, closes its methanol production plant from 2025,
- LNG imports, and
- A renewables future.
The study showed investment in new gas supply is needed, and that in the absence of imported fuel or a significant domestic gas discovery, supply will become insufficient to meet demand if the current trajectory continues.
The study report and news release are available to read below.
Related documents
Previous studies
2023 study report
The study was completed in consultation with:
- field operators
- large industrial consumers
- gas network owners
- retailers
- owners of gas-inclusive electricity generation.
It uses the most recent gas reserves and production information published by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE).
The report has distinct scenarios to investigate the effects of various pathways for the sector.
Read the report below under related documents.
2022 study report
Since the publication of the last report in May 2021, gas producers have been working hard to bring forward their near-term investment plans. This is in large part in response to the scarcity situation identified in the 2021 projections report.
Updated information from producers, coupled with increases in renewable generation, suggests the scarcity situation will be substantially reduced by winter 2022, and largely eliminated by winter 2023.
The report indicates there is enough gas to meet higher-value gas users’ demands for the very long term, plus continue to supply gas for methanol production until the latter half of the 2030s.
Read the report below under related documents.
Gas supply and demand projections – 2021 to 2035
In 2021, we commissioned a study Gas demand and supply projections – 2021 to 2035 to support our Gas Market Settings Investigation.
Read the report below under related documents.
2019 study report
The 2019 edition of the Long term gas supply and demand scenarios –2019 update was published on 16 September 2019. It explored two new key issues facing New Zealand’s gas sector:
- The end-of-life of some of New Zealand’s largest gas-producing fields occurring within the next 10 to 15 years, and the economic factors and policy settings driving possible development of new fields.
- The implications of various climate-change-related policies including:
- altered oil and gas exploration policy settings
- higher potential carbon prices
- the two policy goals of achieving 100% renewable electricity generation by 2035 in a normal hydrological year and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Scenarios 2019 identifies that gas supply conditions are likely to tighten due to low levels of exploration, relatively high levels of demand, the end-of-life of offshore fields and the implications of climate-change-related policies.
The conditions in the market are less certain in the medium to long term, depending on the outcomes of a number of market drivers which are subject to material uncertainty, particularly:
- The future cost of importing LNG if New Zealand continues consuming gas to the point where it will eventually have insufficient gas supply to meet demand.
- Future CO2 prices, and the consequent impact on gas demand – particularly if it becomes more economic for most industrial process heat gas consumers to switch from gas to biomass or electrification.
- Investment in renewable generation and its potential to displace baseload thermal power generation.
- Population and GDP growth.
The report analyses how different future outcomes for these drivers may affect New Zealand’s gas market.
We consulted on a draft of the report and those submissions can be found below.
2016 study report
The 2016 report is the third we commissioned after publishing previous reports in 2012 and 2014. At the same time, we published a presentation by Simon Coates.
2014 study report
The 2014 report analysed the power generation sector and developing more detailed projections of gas outcomes on a scenario basis.
2012/13 study report
The 2012/13 report analysed peak capacity issues, and implications for network investment and capacity allocation on the northern gas transmission system.
The report was published in three stages: an initial draft in August 2012, a further updated version in December 2012 and a final edition in March 2013. All reports can be found below under related documents.