Overview

Gas Industry Co publishes the Long-Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios study to provide stakeholders with information that may be useful for making business decisions.

Gas Industry Co publishes supply and demand studies to provide stakeholders with information that may be useful for making business decisions and to better understand the role gas in years to come.

The most recent reports, commissioned by Gas Industry Co from Concept Consulting, focus on the availability of gas in the short term by analysing the crucial winter months over the coming years. The reports also look at the long term view for supply and demand to better understand how the gas sector may operate through the wider energy transition.  

The latest report is Gas supply and demand projections 2022.

There are currently no new consultations in this Work Programme. 

The Background section contains earlier editions of the Gas Supply and Demand Reports.

Gas supply and demand projections - 2022 update

This report presents an update on New Zealand’s gas supply/demand outlook. The last report was published in May 2021. That focused on the outlook for winter 2021 and highlighted the extent of scarcity at that time.

Since May 2021, gas producers have been working hard to bring forward their near-term investment plans – in large part in response to this scarcity situation. Updated information from producers, coupled with increases in renewable generation (which will reduce the gas-fired power generation requirements), suggests that the scarcity situation will be substantially reduced (although not eliminated) by Winter 2022, and largely eliminated by Winter 2023.

The report indicates that there is sufficient gas to meet higher-value gas users’ demands (residential through to power gen) for the very long term, plus continue to supply gas for methanol production – including the re-starting of the currently mothballed Waitara Valley plant around 2023/24 – until the latter half of the 2030s.

Read the report below. 

Related Documents

  • Gas supply and demand projections 2022
    1.1 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file

Gas demand and supply projections – 2021 to 2035

Gas Industry Company commissioned Concept Consulting to produce the study “Gas demand and supply projections – 2021 to 2035” to to support our Gas Market Settings Investigation. 

Assessment of the supply and demand outlook is central to our investigation analysis and we have fielded numerous requests for the study to be released. You can read the study below. 

Related Documents

  • Gas demand and supply projections – 2021 to 2035
    1.2 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file

Long term gas supply and demand - 2019

The 2019 edition of the Long term gas supply and demand scenarios –2019 update was published on 16 September 2019.

Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios – 2019 Update (Scenarios 2019) was again commissioned by Gas Industry Co from independent expert Concept Consulting Group (Concept). This Report is the fourth edition following previous editions in 2012, 2014 and 2016.

Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios – 2019 Update

Scenarios 2019 explores gas supply and demand scenarios to understand how New Zealand’s gas market may evolve over the period to 2050.  The scenarios in the report are not predictions, but have been developed to understand the possible range of these uncertainties and how various plausible combinations may affect New Zealand’s gas sector.

For the 2019 study, two new key issues facing New Zealand’s gas sector were explored:

  • The end-of-life of some of New Zealand’s largest gas-producing fields occurring within the next 10 to 15 years, and the economic factors and policy settings driving possible development of new fields.
  • The implications of various climate-change-related policies including:
  • Altered oil & gas exploration policy settings
  • Higher potential carbon prices
  • The policy goals of achieving
    • 100% renewable electricity generation by 2035 in a normal hydrological year; and
    • net-zero carbon emissions by 2050

Scenarios 2019 identifies that gas supply conditions are likely to tighten due to low levels of exploration, relatively high levels of demand, the end-of-life of offshore fields and the implications of climate-change-related policies.

The conditions in the market are less certain in the medium to long term, depending on the outcomes of a number of market drivers which are subject to material uncertainty, particularly:

  • The future cost of importing LNG if New Zealand continues consuming gas to the point where it will eventually have insufficient gas supply to meet demand.
  • Future CO2 prices, and the consequent impact on gas demand – particularly if it becomes more economic for most industrial process heat gas consumers to switch from gas to biomass or electrification.
  • Investment in renewable generation and its potential to displace baseload thermal power generation.
  • Population and GDP growth.

The Report analyses how different future outcomes for these drivers may affect New Zealand’s gas market.   

We consulted on a draft of the report and those submissions can be found below.  

 

 

Related Documents

  • Long term gas supply and demand scenarios - 2019 Update
    3.4 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file

Submissions

  • Greymouth Gas New Zealand Limited
    GGNZ Second Letter to GIC on LT gas demand and supply 2019 218 KB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • OMV
    GIC supply demand draft report submission2 126 KB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Firstgas
    Firstgas submission on 2019 Gas Supply and Demand Study Aug 2019 265 KB Adobe Acrobat PDF file

Long term gas supply and demand – 2016

Long term gas supply and demand scenarios – 2016 update can be read below. 

Related Documents

  • Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios – 2016 Update
    5.9 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Supply Demand Presentation to Stakeholders by Simon Coates - October 2016
    1.4 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file

Background

The 2016 Report is the third to be commissioned by Gas Industry Co, following previous reports in 2012 and 2014.

While all three reports have a similar general purpose – each has explored certain issues in more detail – reflecting particular areas of importance at the time:

  • For the 2012/13 Report (the first edition), it was analysis of peak capacity issues, and implications for network investment and capacity allocation on the northern gas transmission system. The initial draft report was first published in August 2012, with a further updated report published in December 2012, and March 2013 (this edition, and its versions are found below).
  • For the 2014 report it was analysis of the power generation sector, and developing more detailed projections of gas outcomes on a scenario basis.

Both editions can be found below. More information on each of the Reports can be found in their individual sections on the left hand navigation.

Key Areas

The 2014 edition of the Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios refreshes and extends a report in March 2013.

This edition of the Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios, commissioned by Gas Industry Co from Concept Consulting (also authors of the initial study), analyses the main drivers for historical price and demand outcomes and investigates factors that will likely influence future outcomes. 

The aim of the study was to provide stakeholders with a broader understanding of the key issues, which can be incorporated into their own decision making processes.

Three market supply scenarios are examined in this report: tight gas supply, moderate supply,  and plentiful supply. Gas demand by sector is also projected for the petrochemical and power generation sectors, and for other gas uses combined. As peak demand is relevant to pipeline capacity and investment decisions, the report also projects peak demands for each scenario.

Related Documents

  • Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012-2027 - Updated March 2013
    5.4 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios - September 2014
    15 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Gas Supply and Demand Report Submissions - September 2014
    715 KB ZIP compressed file

In March 2013 Concept Consulting updated the Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012-2027 to include an analysis of the demand on the Maui pipeline north of the Mokau compressor.

Gas Industry Co commissioned this addition in response to feedback on the original report. This analysis is contained in Appendix D of the revised report (note that the rest of the report remains unchanged). The analysis develops projections for annual and peak day demands on the Maui pipeline north of the Mokau compressor station, taking account of trends in generation demand, coal prices, and carbon dioxide prices.

Each edition of the Report reflects particular areas of importance at the time. For this first edition, it was analysis of peak capacity issues, and implications for network investment and capacity allocation on the northern gas transmission system. The draft initial report was first published in August 2012, with some further updates in December 2012 and March 2013 (this edition, and its versions are found below).

Related Documents

  • Presentation Slides for Stakeholder workshop (Concept) - May 2012
    2.5 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012-2027 - August 2012 (Initial Draft Version)
    13 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Key Findings of December 2012 Report
    191 KB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012 - 2027 - March 2013 (Updated version)
    5.4 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Submissions on Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012-2027 - August 2012 (Initial Draft Version)
    473 KB ZIP compressed file
  • Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012 - 2027 - December 2012
    6.9 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file

Related Documents

  • Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012 - 2027 - December 2012
    6.9 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012 - 2027 - March 2013 (Updated version)
    5.4 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Long Term Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios - September 2014
    15 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file
  • Gas Supply and Demand Scenarios 2012-2027 - August 2012 (Initial Draft Version)
    13 MB Adobe Acrobat PDF file

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