Explore this Work Programme:
Overview
We publish gas supply and demand studies to provide stakeholders with information that may be useful for making business decisions and to better understand the role of gas in the future.
Why these reports are important
Regular supply and demand studies were a key recommendation of our 2021 Gas Market Settings Investigation. It identified weak investment confidence as a risk to security of supply.
Read more about the Gas Market Settings Investigation
Industry feedback indicated that regular assessments of gas supply and demand provides vital information and insight for the energy sector, both in the near term and as the transition proceeds over the coming years.
Most recent study
See the most recent study tab for the latest report which is the Gas Supply and Demand Study 2023.
Previous studies
The previous studies tab has all the earlier editions of the gas supply and demand studies from 2012 to 2022.
Most recent study
About the 2023 supply and demand study
The study was completed in consultation with:
- field operators
- large industrial consumers
- gas network owners
- retailers
- owners of gas-inclusive electricity generation.
It uses the most recent gas reserves and production information published by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE).
The report has distinct scenarios to investigate the effects of various pathways for the sector.
The report is available to read below.
Related documents
Previous studies
2022 study report
Since the publication of the last report in May 2021, gas producers have been working hard to bring forward their near-term investment plans. This is in large part in response to the scarcity situation identified in the 2021 projections report.
Updated information from producers, coupled with increases in renewable generation, suggests the scarcity situation will be substantially reduced by winter 2022, and largely eliminated by winter 2023.
The report indicates there is enough gas to meet higher-value gas users’ demands for the very long term, plus continue to supply gas for methanol production until the latter half of the 2030s.
Read the report below under related documents.
Gas supply and demand projections – 2021 to 2035
In 2021, we commissioned a study Gas demand and supply projections – 2021 to 2035 to support our Gas Market Settings Investigation.
Read the report below under related documents.
2019 study report
The 2019 edition of the Long term gas supply and demand scenarios –2019 update was published on 16 September 2019. It explored two new key issues facing New Zealand’s gas sector:
- The end-of-life of some of New Zealand’s largest gas-producing fields occurring within the next 10 to 15 years, and the economic factors and policy settings driving possible development of new fields.
- The implications of various climate-change-related policies including:
- altered oil and gas exploration policy settings
- higher potential carbon prices
- the two policy goals of achieving 100% renewable electricity generation by 2035 in a normal hydrological year and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Scenarios 2019 identifies that gas supply conditions are likely to tighten due to low levels of exploration, relatively high levels of demand, the end-of-life of offshore fields and the implications of climate-change-related policies.
The conditions in the market are less certain in the medium to long term, depending on the outcomes of a number of market drivers which are subject to material uncertainty, particularly:
- The future cost of importing LNG if New Zealand continues consuming gas to the point where it will eventually have insufficient gas supply to meet demand.
- Future CO2 prices, and the consequent impact on gas demand – particularly if it becomes more economic for most industrial process heat gas consumers to switch from gas to biomass or electrification.
- Investment in renewable generation and its potential to displace baseload thermal power generation.
- Population and GDP growth.
The report analyses how different future outcomes for these drivers may affect New Zealand’s gas market.
We consulted on a draft of the report and those submissions can be found below.
2016 study report
The 2016 report is the third we commissioned after publishing previous reports in 2012 and 2014. At the same time, we published a presentation by Simon Coates.
2014 study report
The 2014 report analysed the power generation sector and developing more detailed projections of gas outcomes on a scenario basis.
2012/13 study report
The 2012/13 report analysed peak capacity issues, and implications for network investment and capacity allocation on the northern gas transmission system.
The report was published in three stages: an initial draft in August 2012, a further updated version in December 2012 and a final edition in March 2013. All reports can be found below under related documents.